Conflicting net-zero scenarios ‘risk ‘survival of the fittest’ approach to engineering solutions’
发布时间：2024年6月5日 10:33
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Which technologies will make the biggest contribution in the push for net zero? (Credit: Shutterstock)
Conflicting projections of how to meet ‘net zero’ by 2050 risk a “Darwinian” approach to sustainable engineering solutions, according to a former IMechE president.
Conflicting projections of how to meet ‘net zero’ by 2050 risk a “Darwinian” approach to sustainable engineering solutions, according to a former IMechE president.
With the success of climate goals depending on government action and targeted funding, Peter Flinn stressed the need for clear and consistent planning as he opened the Sustainability in Engineering event this morning (26 September).
“Our current world is very much built around fossil fuels, we consume somewhere around 15 gigatonnes, 15 billion tonnes a year, of oil, coal, and natural gas,” he said, in the first session of the free Professional Engineering and IMechE webinar series.
“To meet our 2050 climate objectives, those which were set in Paris in 2015, we need – obviously – to switch to low carbon sources. And I would argue this is the biggest engineering project ever undertaken by mankind… it requires an unprecedented level of funding. McKinsey, for example, have estimated we need to spend $275 trillion over the next 30 years.”
Some sustainable solutions include energy reduction through building insulation and lifestyle changes, renewable energy generation, electrification of mobility, heating and industrial processes, use of synthetic or bio-fuels in aviation and shipping, use of gaseous fuels such as hydrogen or ammonia, and carbon capture, utilisation and storage, he said.
In the UK, however, he highlighted the fact that there is no single ‘masterplan’ mapping out the route to further emissions reductions. Multiple organisations including the National Grid, the Energy Systems Catapult and the IEA have developed their own scenarios, but different conclusions mean uncertainty about how significant some technologies – such as green hydrogen or nuclear energy – will be.
“It does worry me slightly that we might be in a situation where, essentially, it’s a Darwinian process of ‘survival of the fittest’ that will determine what the eventual picture might look like in 2050,” he said.
The session, which is now available to view on-demand, gave a detailed overview of the worldwide energy system, negative emissions technologies such as carbon capture, and whole system issues including embodied carbon.
However net zero is achieved, action must be taken swiftly and decisively. Emissions are still going up despite some success, Flinn pointed out. “It is quite late in the day, and the action that is required is rather urgent.”
Become a net zero expert at Sustainability in Engineering (26-30 September), part of the Engineering Futures webinar series. Register for FREE now.
Content published by Professional Engineering does not necessarily represent the views of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.
“Our current world is very much built around fossil fuels, we consume somewhere around 15 gigatonnes, 15 billion tonnes a year, of oil, coal, and natural gas,” he said, in the first session of the free Professional Engineering and IMechE webinar series.
“To meet our 2050 climate objectives, those which were set in Paris in 2015, we need – obviously – to switch to low carbon sources. And I would argue this is the biggest engineering project ever undertaken by mankind… it requires an unprecedented level of funding. McKinsey, for example, have estimated we need to spend $275 trillion over the next 30 years.”
Some sustainable solutions include energy reduction through building insulation and lifestyle changes, renewable energy generation, electrification of mobility, heating and industrial processes, use of synthetic or bio-fuels in aviation and shipping, use of gaseous fuels such as hydrogen or ammonia, and carbon capture, utilisation and storage, he said.
In the UK, however, he highlighted the fact that there is no single ‘masterplan’ mapping out the route to further emissions reductions. Multiple organisations including the National Grid, the Energy Systems Catapult and the IEA have developed their own scenarios, but different conclusions mean uncertainty about how significant some technologies – such as green hydrogen or nuclear energy – will be.
“It does worry me slightly that we might be in a situation where, essentially, it’s a Darwinian process of ‘survival of the fittest’ that will determine what the eventual picture might look like in 2050,” he said.
The session, which is now available to view on-demand, gave a detailed overview of the worldwide energy system, negative emissions technologies such as carbon capture, and whole system issues including embodied carbon.
However net zero is achieved, action must be taken swiftly and decisively. Emissions are still going up despite some success, Flinn pointed out. “It is quite late in the day, and the action that is required is rather urgent.”
Become a net zero expert at Sustainability in Engineering (26-30 September), part of the Engineering Futures webinar series. Register for FREE now.
Content published by Professional Engineering does not necessarily represent the views of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.
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